Newsletter #4: The Root of Systems Change–

–Goes as Deep as You Think.

Complex systems aren’t easily changed, but that doesn’t keep us from trying.  All our expertise and efforts are often stymied by forces we can’t see. A good model tells us where to look. 

The simplest model of complex systems is the Iceberg Model below. According to George Box, a British statistician, “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.   I find the iceberg really useful. 

The system’s results -ALL of THEM- tell us what the system actually does.  For example, a few snapshots of Wisconsin’s agricultural system tells us some of what it does:

-Wisconsin exported $406 million worth of dairy products in 2024.

-It exported even more ($484 million) “Sauces and Yeasts” that year.

-In 2022, Wisconsin had almost 8% of its cropland in cover crops -the highest percentage in the nation.  The national percentage was 4.7%.

-Wisconsin has reduced phosphorus contamination but nitrate contamination in surface and ground water has increased. 

-Wisconsin Farm bankruptcy rose 46% in 2025

-Wisconsin Lost 10% of its farms and 30% of its dairies from 2017 to 2022.

 Patterns of Behavior that drive the results are also above our iceberg’s waterline. Here’s where it starts to get tricky.  

The forces driving those patterns may dwell at or below the waterline. Forces such as policy, programs, or tax laws exist at the water line -visible, but maybe not broadly and to everyone.  (In workshops, I have audience members call out examples for each level in the model.  I’m curious what you come up with for the remaining levels.)

Culture, the other force driving behavior, lies just below the water line. Culture includes the customs, social institutions, history, and achievements of a particular group. It’s their way of doing what they do. Culture in our case includes the sub-cultures of various farming regions and communities, ag-adjacent institutions, and non-profit organizations. 

The closer we are to a culture, the less likely we are to actually see it. Culture becomes the most obvious when we’ve landed in a different one; other peoples’ habits seem foreign to us. 

We may be the most blind to our own culture. “This is the way we’ve always done it” usually references someone else’s inability to change.  Since we are always part of the system we want to change, we have to identify how our own culture leads to the results we didn’t want.

This leads us to the root of systems–how we think.  Beliefs, mental models, paradigms, and worldviews all lie at the base of the iceberg.  The first step is understanding what those specific elements are.  I’ve taken audiences of farmers and conservation professionals through the iceberg five times in three different states.  Though answers vary for the middle levels from group to group, the Mental Model / Beliefs / Worldview answers are very similar.  I’m curious what you come up with.  

Trying to change behavior without addressing underlying structures, cultures, and mental models will ultimately fail.  (You can make it change for a short time with enough force -that’s what war does.)  

We just need to change the thinking to change the system, right? 

Yes, but not the way we’ve been doing it.

For now, play with the Iceberg model.  It works at the farm scale as well.  I’m curious what answers you find.

We’ll cover what to do about shifting the thinking in a future newsletter.

Find a Way,

Ryan